What new polls say about Zohran Mamdani

Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani holds a commanding 10-point lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in New York City’s mayoral general election, while incumbent Mayor Eric Adams trails significantly in fourth place, according to recent polling.

Multiple surveys conducted in early July show Mamdani with consistent strength across the electorate. A Slingshot Strategies poll found the Uganda-born, Indian American candidate leading with 35% support, followed by Cuomo at 25%, Republican Curtis Sliwa at 14% and Adams at just 11%. The poll of 1,036 registered voters, conducted from July 2-6, represents a notable shift from Adams’ historically strong performance among certain demographics.

What’s particularly striking is Adams’ poor showing among Black voters, where he trails both Mamdani (35%) and Cuomo (32%), garnering only 14% support. A separate pro-Adams poll from Gotham Polling & Analytics confirmed similar results, showing Mamdani at 41%, Cuomo at 27%, and Adams at 16%. Mamdani won the Democratic primary by 12 percentage points.

Mamdani’s populist agenda demonstrates broad appeal beyond New York City, with a Yahoo News/YouGov national poll showing Americans support his key proposals by wide margins: 62% approve of free childcare, 60% support rent freezes for lower-income tenants and 65% back raising taxes on corporations and millionaires to fund these programs. Half of Americans say they would vote for a candidate with Mamdani’s platform, while only 26% say no.

However, Mamdani faces some challenges, including controversy over his 2009 Columbia University application where he checked both “Asian” and “Black or African American” boxes, with his rivals suspecting possible fraud and calling for a review. The democratic socialist label also presents obstacles, as only 30% of Americans say they would support a candidate embracing that identification, compared to 43% who would not. Critics argue his policies are too extreme, with opponents raising concerns about his support for defunding police and focus on symbolic or foreign issues rather than local problems.

The fractured moderate opposition benefits Mamdani significantly, as Cuomo is reportedly expected to announce this week that he will stay in the race as an independent and propose that all candidates except Mamdani pledge to drop out if not leading by mid-September. Meanwhile, Adams’ campaign remains defiant, with spokesperson Todd Shapiro claiming they will bring “over 1 million new voters to the polls” and arguing that “voters will choose progress over extremism every time.”

Interestingly, Mamdani is already drawing support from former Mayor Bill de Blasio’s administration alumni, signaling some establishment support. “There’s a lot of people from my administration who’d be excited to work for him if he was mayor,” de Blasio told Politico. “We credentialed a whole generation of progressives to be ready to serve in senior positions in city government.”

The general election is set for Nov. 4.