Harris leads but Trump gains ground in latest polls

Recent polling reveals a tightly contested race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, who faced off in what could be their only debate in Philadelphia last night. While Harris leads in most national polls, Trump has made significant gains among key voter groups, while several swing states show signs of tightening ahead of November’s election.

The numbers: A poll conducted by Big Village between Sept. 6 to Sept. 8 shows Harris leading Trump by five points, with 49% of likely voters supporting her compared to 44% for Trump. Similarly, an Emerson College poll conducted from Sept. 3 to Sept. 4 shows Harris ahead by two points. However, a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from Sept. 3 to Sept. 6 gives Trump a narrow one-point lead (48% to Harris’ 47%) — his first lead in a major national poll. This suggests the race may be tightening after Harris’ “honeymoon period.” In Florida, Trump holds a two-point advantage (49% to Harris’ 47%), according to a Morning Consult poll conducted from Aug. 30 to Sept. 8. Other swing states are equally competitive: Harris leads by just one point in Michigan and two points in Wisconsin, while both candidates are deadlocked in Pennsylvania, according to a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted from Sept. 3 to Sept. 6.
The big picture and what’s next: National polling averages show Harris leading by 2.3 to 2.8 points, but Trump’s recent surge is reflected in key swing state polls, where he has made gains with independent voters and Latino constituencies. A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll also shows a drop in Harris’ support among independents, with Trump leading her 49% to 46%, and Latino voters, where Trump now has 51% support. How the candidates will fare in new polls after squaring off in potentially their only debate yesterday remains to be seen.

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