Beijing claims ‘final say’ over Dalai Lama’s reincarnation

China’s government declared this week that it has “indisputable” authority over the selection of the next Dalai Lama, directly challenging the current spiritual leader’s authority and setting up a major succession dispute.

Historical backing: Gama Cedain, deputy secretary of the Chinese Communist Party committee in Tibet, told reporters Tuesday that “the central government has the indisputable final say in the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama” and that searches must occur only within China with government approval.

Chinese authorities typically point to history for support, since the title has been conferred by the central government since the 5th Dalai Lama. Cedain stressed that the Dalai Lama has never solely decided about reincarnation, which also follows strict religious rituals and historical conventions.

Driving the news: The ongoing dispute escalated after the 90-year-old Dalai Lama announced last month that his institution would continue, designating the Gaden Phodrang Trust as the exclusive authority to identify his reincarnation. The religious leader previously declared that his successor will be born in a “free country” beyond Chinese influence, reversing his earlier stance that the institution might end.

Meanwhile, China considers the Nobel laureate a “separatist” and has intervened before in Buddhist succession, as when a 6-year-old selected by the Dalai Lama for Panchen Lama vanished in 1995 and Beijing installed its own candidate.

Mongolia as “testing ground”: Telo Tulku Rinpoche, the Dalai Lama’s envoy to Russia, Mongolia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), warned that Mongolia has become a “testing ground” for China to control reincarnation. Though the Dalai Lama recognized the 10th Khalkha Jetsun Dampa in 2023 — a boy with both U.S. and Mongolian citizenship — Mongolia has refused official recognition due to Chinese economic pressure.

“Mongolia is pretty much under control of China politically, economically, and now we can say spiritually as well,” Rinpoche told Global Order. “They have a very strong influence to silence the Mongolian authorities, which they have succeeded in.” Economic sanctions following the Dalai Lama’s 2016 Mongolia visit effectively severed religious ties.

What’s next: Analysts predict rival Dalai Lamas will emerge, with Beijing and Tibetan monks selecting separate candidates, producing a crisis of legitimacy. The U.S., for its part, has called on China to “cease its interference in the succession of the Dalai Lama and other Tibetan Buddhist lamas.” The search process could take several years following the current Dalai Lama’s death, during which this religious and geopolitical standoff will likely intensify.